Please Explain: Moneyball mayhem

Mark Neeld has overseen a massive turnover of the Demons list. But has it improved? Source: Getty Images

IN the first installment of a weekly series, Glenn McFarlane writes an open letter to a target who needs to be asked the hard questions in footy.

DEAR MELBOURNE,

We know you are only three days out from the start of your 2013 campaign, but we couldn't let the season start without issuing you with our first Please Explain for the year.

Leaving aside the teenagers you were able to pick up via the father-son rule (Jack Viney), the national draft (Jimmy Toumpas) and the trade period (Dom Barry and Jesse Hogan), we've got some serious concerns about your comings and goings since the end of 2012.

You've lost Brent Moloney (Brisbane) and Jared Rivers (Geelong) to free agency; let go Stefan Martin (Brisbane), Jordan Gysberts (North Melbourne) and Cale Morton (West Coast) in trades, and delisted Ricky Petterd, who was snapped up by Richmond.

In the trade/free agency window, you replaced them with Chris Dawes, Shannon Byrnes, David Rodan, Cam Pedersen and Tom Gillies, all of whom played second-tier football at stages of last season.

We shouldn't be too surprised by the strategy by which you attacked the off-season.

Has Glenn got it right or are the Dees on the right track? Leave a comment below

As far back as last July, coach Mark Neeld forecast that he was a big fan of the film Moneyball and intended to apply it to Demons' plans as he embarked on his second season as coach.

Moneyball was a good movie and an even better book, but we're not sure what happened at the Oakland Athletics baseball team applies to the Melbourne Football Club of 2013.

Brad Pitt in a scene from Columbia Pictures' drama film Moneyball. Source: Supplied

And what has happened over the pre-season has only increased our worries in terms of the shortfall between the Demons' in and out trays for 2013.

In fairness, Moloney and Rivers effectively walked out on the club. But both appear set for big seasons.

Moloney won a best-and-fairest two years ago and was one of the best contested ball winners in the AFL that season.

Last year he was a shadow of his former self, spending plenty of time at Casey Scorpions. We'd love to know why. Was it attitude as much as form?

Demons fans would have been watching with gnawed fingernails his form in the NAB Cup final when he constantly extracted the ball from contests. Eighteen-year-old Viney will be playing that role for the Demons this year.

Rivers is no Matthew Scarlett, but he looms as an important player for the Cats.

Why did he spend so much time forward in the second half of last year? He is an out-and-out backman.

Martin has the height and frame for AFL football, even if his output so far has not been where it should be. At Brisbane, he might achieve his potential.

We're not sure just what sort of output Gysberts, Morton and Petterd might give their respective clubs. But two were first-round draft picks, adding to the talent pool lost over summer.

Brent Moloney fires off a handball against Collingwood. Picture: Wayne Ludbey Source: Herald Sun

What of the players the Demons got in return?

So much of the Moneyball philosophy is all about getting the right players for the right price.

Dawes might prove to be the right player - Neeld knows him well from his Collingwood days - but has he come at the right price?

On his 2010 premiership form, maybe. On what he has achieved over the past two seasons, not a chance.

There are two questions here. Can Dawes regain that form again? And will he justify the four-year, reported $2 million deal?

Dual premiership player Byrnes is about to turn 29. He might be worth the punt as an unrestricted free agent, but the fact remains he played only four games with Geelong last year.

Byrnes excited fans by kicking five goals in an intra-club game in February. But he has only done that once in an AFL match - back in 2009. And he has only six goals from nine games in the last two seasons.

Rodan is also 29. He will bring spirit, character and good teaching to the young Melbourne midfield, but has he got many kilometres left in his battle-scarred knees? He managed 10 matches for Port last year, averaging 14 disposals.

Can Pedersen and Gillies - effectively cast off by their former clubs - make their mark with their new clubs? The Dees hope so.

Neeld rightly wanted to change the culture of the playing list. Heaven knows it needed it. Good on him for having the courage of his convictions.

But on raw numbers the club is clearly further back in terms of talent than it was at the start of last season.

We'll surprise people: New Demons recruit David Rodan runs during a training drill at AAMI Park last month. Picture: Blair Hamish Source: Herald Sun

We will know more on Sunday when you take on Port Adelaide - a team that has heavily invested in the national draft recently.

Champion Data has rated the Demons' draw the easiest in the competition this year. Two games each against GWS and Gold Coast as well as 13 at the MCG.

We hope our concerns prove unfounded and that the Moneyball theory works.

Your fans have been waiting for far too long and deserve a break.

Good luck on Sunday.

Yours Sincerely,

Glenn McFarlane

PS...

1. DANYLE PEARCE
We loved the way you have slotted into Ross Lyon's exciting Dockers' outfit, but what's with the dance-stomp goal celebrations?

Fremantle's Danyle Pearce celebrates a great second quarter goal. Picture: Daniel Wilkins Source: The Sunday Times

2. BOB KATTER
Bob, you must be joking about your new policy of AFL players getting tax-breaks because of the joy they bring the fans. What about others who bring us joy? You left out little kids, cute puppies, Father Christmas, the Easter Bunny, and the Tattslotto reps who call you to say "You've won.''

3. THE MCC, AFL and CRICKET AUSTRALIA
C'mon guys, lock yourselves in a room and sort out your differences so we can have the first AFL match of 2014 before a massive MCG crowd.

4. ADELAIDE MIDFIELDERS
Maybe it is time you started lending Patrick Dangerfield a hand in the contests.

Follow Glenn McFarlane on Twitter @MaccaHeraldSun

Adelaide's Patrick Dangerfield under extreme pressure. Source: Getty Images

 

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